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Why Winter Weather Is So Hard to Predict in Tennessee
Slow-moving systems, competing air masses and ice potential make forecasting difficult
Will it snow? Will it rain? Will it be a mix of sleet, freezing rain and snow?
That uncertainty is exactly why forecasting winter weather in Tennessee is often so challenging.
“It’s hard to get a handle on this type of weather forecasting due to a lot of factors,” said Cookeville Weather Guy Michael Detwiler.
A winter storm warning indicates heavy mixed precipitation is possible, with snow and sleet totals up to six inches and ice accumulation ranging from a tenth to three-quarters of an inch. Any amount of ice can bring down trees and power lines.
Why This Storm Is Hard to Predict
The system is fueled by a slow cut-off low pressure system that is disconnected from other weather patterns. Cold air from the Canadian Rockies is pushing south while warm air from the Gulf attempts to move north.
Because the system is slow moving and temperatures vary at different levels of the atmosphere, small changes can determine whether precipitation falls as rain, sleet, freezing rain or snow.
“This is why I tell people not to get attached to forecasts a week ahead of time,” Detwiler said. “It constantly changes.”
Meteorologists rely on multiple forecast models, but those models often do not come into agreement until 24 to 48 hours before an event.
“Forecasting winter weather in Tennessee is tricky because a lot of factors are fighting each other.”
— Michael Detwiler, Cookeville Weather Guy
The storm’s impacts may extend well beyond the precipitation itself.
“The bigger story is the cold air that is coming behind it,” Detwiler said. “Whatever falls over the weekend will make traveling treacherous due to the freezing temperatures that follow.”
Temperatures are expected to remain below freezing throughout next week.
“Whatever falls over the weekend will make traveling treacherous due to the freezing temperatures that follow.”
— Michael Detwiler
Electric crews, road departments, emergency services, hospitals and universities across the Upper Cumberland are preparing for a range of possible conditions.
WINTER WEATHER AT A GLANCE
What to Know Before the Storm Hits
• Snow and sleet totals could reach up to six inches
• Ice accumulation possible from a tenth to three-quarters of an inch
• Any ice can bring down trees and power lines
• Temperatures expected to stay below freezing next week
• Travel conditions may worsen after precipitation ends
• Ice accumulation possible from a tenth to three-quarters of an inch
• Any ice can bring down trees and power lines
• Temperatures expected to stay below freezing next week
• Travel conditions may worsen after precipitation ends
Related coverage here explains how schools, utilities and emergency agencies are preparing and what residents should do now.
